Fallout 5 is a long way out. Bethesda is currently working on Starfield, a new IP set for release before The Elder Scrolls 6, which itself isn’t likely to release until at least the mid-2020s.
Based on the history of the franchise, it’s likely that such a long wait for Fallout 5 will eventually see a game that’s completely different from Fallout 4 or Fallout 76. Here’s a breakdown of that history and what it could mean for the future of the Fallout franchise.
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Fallout has been through several distinct phases over the course of its lifespan. Fallout 1 and Fallout 2 were isometric RPGs with a top-down perspective. Bethesda acquired the IP in the 2000s, creating Fallout 3, a first-person RPG which took the story-style and tone of Fallout while adapting it to the first-person RPG perspective Bethesda had found success with in The Elder Scrolls series.
Fallout: New Vegas was then developed by Obsidian Entertainment using the assets from Fallout 3 to create an ambitious new story set in the Mojave Wasteland that’s still considered by many to be a high point of the series. After that, Bethesda returned to the franchise with Fallout 4, which made significant changes to the game’s combat system as well as its storytelling devices, adding two fully voiced player characters for each in-game gender option.
In another unexpected twist for the franchise, Bethesda took the assets from Fallout 4 to create an open-world multiplayer game, Fallout 76. Fallout 76’s buggy launch compounded criticism that the studio had already been faced with for creating a multiplayer version of a famously single player RPG franchise to begin with, and though the game’s community has grown to a degree even Todd Howard recently commented that Fallout 76 “let a lot of people down.”
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It’s likely that Fallout 5 is at least 10 years away. Starfield will likely not release for another couple of years, at which point Bethesda will have to dedicate its resources fully to The Elder Scrolls 6 if the next chapter in the fantasy franchise is going to have a hope of stepping out of Skyrim’s shadow. Rumors have circulated that Fallout: New Vegas 2 could be in the works to tide fans over, though that is far from confirmed.
Regardless, it’s likely that if New Vegas 2 was developed it would also use assets from Fallout 4, while Fallout 5 would use the overhauled engine that Bethesda has been working on for Starfield and The Elder Scrolls 6. At Brighton Digital 2020, Todd Howard mentioned that both of Bethesda’s current projects would make more extensive use of procedural generation to create huge in-game worlds.
As a result, Fallout 5 could realize a more realistic city size than players have ever seen before, while taking full advantage of all the other technical possibilities that an overhauled engine would allow. It remains to be seen if Bethesda will stick to voiced characters, though making such a significant change in Fallout 4 suggests the studio could make similarly large leaps for the next game too.
Fallout 5 could be the start of a new generation of Fallout games just as Fallout 3 was. It’s almost impossible to tell where Bethesda might go with the franchise, especially since as a new IP Starfield could be a great opportunity for the studio to experiment with its classic RPG formula. What’s likely, however, is that fans can expect something very different from the last generation of Fallout games, and that whatever that new game ends up being, fans of the franchise are still in for a considerable wait.
Fallout 5 is not confirmed to be in development.