While it's never been particularly confirmed or denied otherwise, Atlus games have typically skewed towards PlayStation exclusivity in the past. Especially when it comes to mainline Persona games, every entry (and enhanced re-release like Persona 3 FES, Persona 4 Golden, Persona 5 Royal) has released on a PlayStation console. Only spin-offs manage to branch out beyond PlayStation's portfolio, with games like Persona Q and Q2 releasing on the Nintendo DS and 3DS, respectively. The sole time a Persona game came to an Xbox console was the fighting game spin-off of Persona 4 proper: Persona 4 Arena, followed by its re-release Persona 4 Arena Ultimax.
It's hard to argue that there's any shortage of JRPG fans who don't own a Xbox console, especially in recent years. Xbox Game Pass has added a slew of popular JRPGs to the subscription, ranging from the traditional turn-based combat games, to more modern and contemporary alternatives. While mainline games in the Persona series have typically released solely on PlayStation, that trend has changed recently with Persona 4 Golden coming to PC last year, as well as Persona 5 Strikers releasing on PC last month. Persona certainly wouldn't be particularly out of place on Xbox consoles as well as PlayStation, especially in the wake of Persona 5's enduring popularity.
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Judging by the recent additions to Xbox Game Pass by Square Enix, and even Atlus' parent company Sega, clearly there's an audience for all kinds for JRPGs on Xbox. Square Enix in particular has proved this immensely, releasing games both old and new from the Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, and even Kingdom Hearts franchises. Not to mention other less mainstream additions like Tales of Vesperia or Code Vein, which are far more niche compared to other JRPGs like the Persona series. This is without even taking into account JRPGs not on Xbox Game Pass, like the Ys games or the Valkyria Chronicles series. Persona would fit in alongside these games quite well.
While the Persona series is a more recent addition to mainstream popularity with Persona 5, that doesn't mean the series as a whole is any less iconic than Final Fantasy or Dragon Quest. Persona 3 and Persona 4 are equally critically-acclaimed games that are also loved by existing Persona fans. With the Persona series arguably on the same level of popularity as Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest on PlayStation, extending the series to Xbox would only be good for the series. Persona 4 Golden kicked off a new leniency on platform exclusivity that Atlus had never exhibited previously. There's a whole new sector of JRPG fans on Xbox that'd play Persona, theoretically.
Another very important factor that could lead to Persona games coming to Xbox is Atlus' parent company, Sega. Back in 2017, Sega and Atlus had reiterated that franchises like Persona and Yakuza would remain exclusive to PlayStation consoles for the foreseeable future. In particular, the Yakuza Kiwami remakes of the first and second games, as well as Yakuza 0, were PlayStation console exclusives until February of last year. Not only were the first three Yakuza games released on Xbox One last year, but they also released day-and-date on Xbox Game Pass. The rest of the original Yakuza series released on Xbox One and Xbox Game Pass this February as well.
Even Sega is showing love to a JRPG series often thought as obscure or bespoke, a distinction often attributed to the Persona series until Persona 5 and Persona 5 Royal's release. As recently as November 2020, Sega still considered the Yakuza series "niche," despite the traditional JRPG reimagining of Yakuza: Like a Dragon breaking sales records for the series. Persona could see a similar explosion in popularity on Xbox, especially if the series was added to Xbox Game Pass as well. So far, Persona 4 Golden is the only mainline entry in the series that's made its way to a platform other than PlayStation, even if it's on PC and not Xbox specifically.
However, the specific success of Persona 4 Golden could very well influence several legacy ports of the Persona series, which in turn could lead to Xbox ports later on. A similar situation occurred with Kingdom Hearts and Final Fantasy, proving that Xbox fans were interested in the JRPG genre. Western acceptance of modern JRPGs has been slow-going in the last several years, but Persona 5 has largely marked a turning point in that trend. The subsect of games affectionately referred to as "made in Japan" have seen an explosion in popularity among western audiences. Persona making its way to Xbox would further emphasize that trend, especially with Persona 5.